Kantar Media CMAG tracking for broadcast TV and National cable from March 1 to May 22 found that of the 64,484 spots that had mentioned AHCA, 57 percent (36,743 spots) were negative or anti-AHCA and 43 percent (27,741) were positive/pro-AHCA. However, the disparity is not nearly as large as it was back in 2010, when the anti-side completely drowned out the pro-side.
And, at this point, those on the anti-AHCA side have put up more ads attacking the bill than those on the pro-side have in defending it. With these 2010 ad wars still fresh in the memory of campaign operatives, both sides are busy trying to shape the contours of the Obamacare repeal debate. And, while the bill didn’t become wildly unpopular overnight, it also didn’t gain in support either. However, many Democrats argue that the incessant attacks were critical in ginning up the GOP base and depressing Democratic intensity. By November of 2010, opinions of the law didn’t change much (42 percent favorable to 40 percent unfavorable). Kaiser Foundation Polling taken in April of that year found the law slightly more popular than unpopular (46 percent favorable to 40 percent unfavorable). Obama signed the ACA into law in March of 2010. The constant attacks didn’t fundamentally alter the views Americans had of the new law. In other words, of all the political/advocacy advertising on the issue of Obamacare in 2010, almost 90 percent of it was negative. Meanwhile, less than 50,000 ads were aired that supported the law. Of those, there were 320,397 ads attacking/criticizing Obamacare. According to data supplied to the Cook Political Report from Kantar Media CMAG, a nonpartisan tracker of political TV advertising, there were more than 420,000 ads aired on broadcast TV and national cable mentioning Obamacare/ACA that ran in 2010. In the 2010 cycle, the GOP went on offense against the law, while Democrats were mostly silent on promoting it. One plugged in Democrat worried that Democrats weren’t capable organizationally or financially to “flood” the zone with anti-AHCA advertising. But, a number of Democratic strategists and long-time Hill campaign vets that I spoke with over the last couple of weeks are worried that Democrats won’t take advantage of this opportunity to make this bill as toxic for Republicans in 2018 as Republicans made Obamacare radioactive for Democrats in 2010. Even among Republicans the bill is getting tepid support. Recent polling shows that the AHCA is super unpopular. Republicans have a bigger, tougher task on the messaging front. While the AHCA sits in legislative limbo, trying to move its way down the legislative track, both sides are attempting to define it/spin it to their benefit. The other track is the messaging surrounding the bill we do have – the Republican legislation (AHCA) that passed the House in early May.
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